Water AetherwingTier 1
at Road to Ascent Baguio Leg
decks
2
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
6-3-1
overall winrate
65.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.4%
avg ELO +0.6 per match
expected value
53.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1262
· median 1262
· range 1243–1282
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1079
Q1 1175
Q3 1287
1421
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 10.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.7% | -1.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Diao Chan | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.4% | +2.3 |
| Water Oblation | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
